Sports Trading Daily Service
The daily trade service is NOT a tipping service. I don’t want you to think you are paying me for my tips. What you are paying for (if you choose to do so) is to be informed each day, via email which trades I am doing myself on any given day.
Some days I will do none, and you will get en email saying there are no trades. The trades will be mostly cricket and football, and occasionally some tennis or minority sports like darts and snooker.
I do not cover racing as my racing trading is just scalping prices and trading races in running and I can’t advise what I am doing as I don’t know myself until the race starts. So no racing.
So firstly let’s get that understood, this service is the information on the trades I do, and at the prices I do them. I send stakes advise for a hypothetical bank of £1000, so if you have £2000, double the stakes I advise and if you have £500 halve them etc.
The most common questions are about results and strike rate and ROI etc.
The strike rate is 73% and has been for around eight years. So for every 100 trades I send you, 73 will win and 27 will lose. We may lose six in a row but we could also win 10 or 12 in a row, but over a year, 73% of trades will win.
As for profit, every single member will get a different result because you all use different stakes, get slightly differing prices (I may say 2.20 and you will get 2.16 and someone will get 2.24) and sometimes these price differences will be in our favour and some against. They will balance out over time.
So if you make £20 on a trade, someone else may make £15 and one may make £25.
The best plan (always) is to keep your own results and see exactly how the service does for YOU, at the prices and stakes you get matched.
So here is the deal. My service is the trades I make myself each day. I email them seven days a week around dinner time for the next day. We have a private Twitter account for changes or extra trades that may pop up through the day.
Try the service, keep your results to see how it performs. If it is not working for you, leave. If you join and after a week don’t like it, I will fully refund you. If you stay two weeks, I will refund you half.
After that if you don’t want another month, just cancel and that’s that.
So the decision is yours, but by being a member you get access to a full time trader, can ask questions and get help with any of your trading issues.
Sample Daily Email
Saturday November 19th 2016
4.00am India v England
England have fallen right in a hole and this game only looks to be going in one direction now. The first target for England is to get to 256 and avoid the follow on. Then get as close as they can to the 455 and they have a small hope with Stokes and Bairstow still at the wicket. But there is not a lot of batting to come.
Should they manage that, then it is all down to India to see how quickly they score and set England a target. I doubt we will ever get weather assistance in India so it is all down to the resolve of the England players now.
All we can do is wait and see where we are tomorrow.
We won on the first game this morning with Chittagong doing the business after batting first. We also got Rangpur up in the second so it was a good day for BPL trades.
7.00am Dhaka Dynamites v Khulna Titans
Dhaka are 1.65 for this one and that is too short to back in a T20 without knowing which side is batting first. With Khulna 2.40 I would be happy to back them should they bat first using the strategy from the eBook.
I will be on Twitter trading this one live so let’s not commit to what we will do until we see what happens.
12.45pm Comilla Victorians v Rajshahi Kings
I think after the batting effort yesterday by Comilla you could only back the Kings here. But the Kings lost today as well so what do you do! they can’t both lose.
There are no prices available on Betfair or with the major bookmakers yet so i will have to let you know about this one tomorrow as well.
10.00pm New Zealand v Pakistan
Once again we suffer for me having to email you the night before and that means we were victims of the toss. Had Pakistan bowled first, we would probably have exited the trade with a win already.
It again proves that in an ideal situation of trading, you wait for the toss, see the team, check the conditions and place the trade. There is no way I would have backed Pakistan batting first on that surface, but as I have to email you the day before, we took a punt on them winning the toss and batting second.
The surface demanded patience which Pakistan clearly lacked, as their top order crumbled after a solid 31-run opening stand that frustrated New Zealand.
I have to stay with them as an early breakthrough on day three can get them right back into contention.
I think in hindsight with the weather the way it has been and the pitch how it is, I should have advised to back Pakistan if New Zealand batted first. It looks like that omission has cost us as few would have got that, had the coin fallen on the other side.
12.30pm Man Utd v Arsenal
Manchester United cannot afford to lose this game and Jose Mourinho will set his team up accordingly. His main aim will be to avoid losing, which is the Mourinho way. I am not expecting to see a really attack-minded United side, put it that way.
Since they lost to Liverpool on the opening day of the Premier League season, Arsenal have not lost in 16 games in all competitions.
United lose Zlatan to suspension and Luke Shaw, Marouane Fellaini, Antonio Valencia and Wayne Rooney are all injury doubts.
Arsenal will assess Alexis Sanchez, who started for Chile on Tuesday despite suffering a hamstring problem earlier in the international break.
Right-back Hector Bellerin will be missing for four weeks because of an ankle injury, while Santi Cazorla remains out with an Achilles problem.
Arsenal are winless in their last nine Premier League games at Old Trafford, losing seven of those matches.
United could draw a third successive home league game for the first time since a similar run between February and April 1992.
The Gunners are in excellent form, while United have been inconsistent, but a draw at Old Trafford would still be a good result for Arsene Wenger’s side.
Jose Mourinho has never lost a Premier League game against Arsenal, winning five and drawing six of his 11 previous meetings with the Gunners. He won’t risk losing to Wenger.
Wayne Rooney has scored 14 times in all competitions against Arsenal during his career. He only has a better record against Aston Villa, with 15 goals.
Arsene Wenger’s only win in 15 previous encounters as a manager in any competition against Jose Mourinho came in the 2015 Community Shield (D6, L8).
Arsenal’s only Premier League away defeat in 2016 came at Manchester United in February.
But they have lost just one of their last 21 top-flight matches.
The Gunners are one of two Premier League sides yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes this season, along with West Brom.
There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Man Utd home matches while Arsenal have drawn the first half in 10/20 away matches. Man Utd have drawn the first half in 11/20 home matches.
Head to head past 10, United are 6-3-1 with six going Over 2.5 goals.
Eight games had a first half goal and six had a second half goal.
Looking at games this season, United at home are 2-2-1 and just two went Over 2.5 goals.
Arsenal away in five games are 4-1-0.
I was all set to lay Arsenal as I think it will be a draw but I can’t see any possible way United are the favourites of the three outcomes. I am guessing that is due to Arsenal’s injury issues and the fact Wenger has never beaten Mourinho in the Premier League.
Arsenal might fancy their chances of getting some joy down the flanks. Iwobi would fancy his chances against Darmian, who often struggles against quick players, while Walcott has a clear speed advantage over Blind, too.
But United could say something similar, especially with Martial playing high up the pitch against Arsenal’s right-back – whoever that will be. Both these teams traditionally depend upon great speed in the final third, and depending upon both managers’ starting selections, pace could be the game’s crucial factor.
This seems likely to be a tight game, and looking at the midfields, potentially very physical. Referee Andre Marriner has shown five red cards in his ten matches this season, the most in the Premier League. You can a send off at around 3/1.
I think this is where Wenger gets his win, but in case Jose parks the bus, I am laying United. Why? Because they are the shortest price of the three outcomes and Arsenal have only conceded three goals and scored 12, failing to score just once (Leicester 0-0), on the road this campaign and while United might get one I certainly don’t see them getting many.
Lay Manchester United for £20 @ 2.64 and back £10 @ 5.30
3.00pm Crystal Palace v Man City
Manchester City have dropped some points in the past few weeks but what helps them here is they are well placed in their Champions League group.
That means Pep does not have to worry so much about their trip to play Borussia Monchengladbach on Wednesday when he picks his team for this game.
Crystal Palace have lost their past four league matches, and it is hard to see them ending that losing streak. You couldn’t tip them to your ex mother in law. They have lost their last four games, have a dismal record against City and sit one point above the relegation zone.
City have won 10 of their last 11 games against Crystal Palace in all competitions. The only exception during that run was Palace’s 2-1 win in a Premier League game at Selhurst Park in April 2015.
Palace have failed to score in five of the last six Premier League games against City. They have gone 16 Premier League games without a clean sheet, the longest such run of any current top-flight side. Their last Premier League clean sheet came against Everton at Selhurst Park on 13 April.
City have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their 11 league games this season.
The past six meetings were 0-4, 0-1, 2-1, 0-3, 0-2, 0-1. Three of the games were 0-0 at HT.
I am going to the HT/FT market for this one.
Back Draw City for £10 @ 5.20
Back City/City for £20 @ 2.50
3.00pm Everton v Swansea
are up against their former captain, Everton defender Ashley Williams, at Goodison Park and boy do they miss him. I said that the moment they sold him. It was madness.
The thing with Williams is that, besides being a very good player, he would have been a very big personality in the dressing room at Swansea. He is exactly the sort of organiser and leader they need at the moment.
Everton haven’t won any of their last four Premier League games against Swansea, drawing three and losing the most recent meeting 2-1 at Goodison Park in January.
Swansea’s only other win in 25 meetings in all competitions came in the League Cup two years ago (D8, L15).
But Everton are unbeaten in eight league matches at Goodison Park, winning five and drawing three. Their manager is superb and Swansea have a new man in charge and has only had four games.
The Swans are enduring a club record run of 10 top-flight games without a victory. They have not gone winless for 11 successive league matches since October to December 2000 in the third tier. That record should be broken here.
Their record of one win, two draws and eight defeats equals their worst start after 11 matches of a league campaign, first set in 1983-84 in the second tier. They drew their 12th game that season and were relegated.
Head to Head past 10, Everton are 5-4-1 and that one loss was the last meeting. Only four games went over 2.5 goals and only four had a first half goal. Six had a second half goal.
Everton have won 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Swansea have lost 7/10 away matches. Everton have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.
Lay Over 2.5 goals for £25 @ 1.80 and back £12.50 @ 3.60
3.00pm Southampton v Liverpool
Southampton’s form has dipped a bit in the past few weeks and they have only taken one point from three games.
Liverpool are assessing the fitness of Adam Lallana after he sustained an injury while playing for England.
Philippe Coutinho is also a doubt with a hamstring problem but Dejan Lovren returns after recovering from a virus. They would be big losses.
Southampton ended a four-game winless run in the Premier League against Liverpool with a 3-2 victory over the Reds in March (D1, L3). However, Liverpool did defeat the Saints 6-1 at St Mary’s last season in the League Cup.
Saints have won just one of their last five league games (D2, L2). However, their defeat by Chelsea in their last match at St Mary’s was their first loss in 10 home league games (W6, D3).
Only Liverpool and Manchester United (both 16) have won more top-flight matches than Southampton (15) in 2016.
Charlie Austin has scored eight goals in all competitions this season – no English Premier League player has scored more (Theo Walcott also has eight).
Liverpool are unbeaten in nine league matches, winning seven and drawing two – a run which has taken them top of the Premier League for the first time since May 2014.
I think the biggest price of the three outcomes is the most likely.
I am going to back the draw and will cover with two correct scores. We might be lucky enough to exit our draw trade at 1.80 and then a late goal seals us a win with 2-1 either way.
Back draw for £10 @ 3.60 and lay £20 @ 1.80
Back 2-1 for £1.00 @ 14
Back 1-2 for £2 @ 10.50
3.00pm Stoke v Bournemouth
I am not trading this game as both teams have been really inconsistent and very hard for me to get a confident position on. I will give you some stats in case you see something.
Stoke are unbeaten in six games and Bournemouth are yet to win away from home in the Premier League, so this one might look like a home banker.
But the Cherries can count themselves a bit unfortunate to have lost their past two league games, against Sunderland and Middlesbrough, and they have improved a lot since the start of the season.
Stoke have won four of their last five games against Bournemouth, including the last three. They have earned 11 points since the start of October. Only Chelsea (15) and Liverpool (13) have better records.
Bournemouth haven’t kept a league clean sheet away from home since February, a run of 10 fixtures. They are winless in their last seven away games in the top flight since beating Aston Villa in April (D2, L5).
Stoke at 2.30 looks a fair price.
Under 2.5 at even money looks ok.
draw/draw in the HT/FT at 6.00 looks value.
No bet for me though, can’t be confident on any of it.
3.00pm Sunderland v Hull
A massive relegation match. Hull will be bottom at the end of the season and Sunderland are there currently. They can’t afford to lose this and I am fairly sure Moyes will ensure they don’t.
Hull are on a five-match unbeaten run against Sunderland in all competitions, including four Premier League games (W4, D1).
The Black Cats could lose three successive home fixtures against Hull for the first time in 44 years.
Much to Moyes’ relief, Sunderland earned their first league win of the season at the 11th attempt against Bournemouth last time out.
Hull stopped a run of six successive league defeats by coming from behind to beat Southampton in their most recent game.
The Tigers have only scored two first-half goals in the Premier League this season, as have Sunderland.
Hull have gone nine league games without a clean sheet, conceding 23 times in that period.
I am going with the home side.
Back Sunderland for £15 @ 2.20 and lay £30 @ 1.10
3.00pm Watford v Leicester
I am not sure what to do here. Leicester have the worst away record in the Premier League so do we run with that continuing or is it about to change?
Both are coming off a loss before the international break. Watford were walloped 6-1 by Liverpool and Leicester lost their first home game in a year to West Brom!
The Hornets have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 home games against Leicester in all competitions. They are winless in four meetings since a 3-1 home victory to reach the 2013 Championship play-off final at Leicester’s expense.
Watford suffered their heaviest Premier League defeat when thrashed 6-1 by Liverpool last time out (they’ve previously lost 5-0)
It ended their four-match unbeaten league run, which had included three consecutive clean sheets. They could go four home matches without defeat in a single Premier League season for the first time in a decade.
Leicester have only earned one point from five away matches this season, conceding 14 goals. It is the worst away record in the division; they are winless in seven since beating Sunderland in April.
It’s amazing both these sides are priced at 2.80 with the draw at 3.40
There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Watford home matches and in 11/20 Leicester away matches so that makes 2.12 very attractive as the combination of those two stats is 1.66 (60% chance).
This season, 4/5 home games went Over 2.5 goals for Watford and the same from five away for Leicester. That is an 80% chance or 1.25, and we are being offered 2.12. That is plenty of value.
Back Over 2.5 goals for £30 @ 2.12 and exit if two first half goals.
5.30pm Tottenham v West Ham
A London derby to end the day. Dele Alli is close to fitness after a knee injury but may not be risked ahead of Tuesday’s European game against Monaco.
Toby Alderweireld, Erik Lamela and Ben Davies remain out.
West Ham captain Mark Noble is suspended but defender Winston Reid is fit after a hamstring strain.
There could be a place among the substitutes for forward Diafra Sakho, who has not played all season because of a back problem.
Spurs have drawn their past four league games and they are the only unbeaten side left in the Premier League this season, but they haven’t won since beating Manchester City 2-0 at White Hart Lane at the start of October. And despite the only unbeaten record, they are five points off Liverpool at the top.
The visit of West Ham also comes at a time when Spurs are still dealing with a number of injury issues which won’t help their cause.
The Hammers seem to be picking up after a poor start to the season. They have lost only one of the last five games but still sit just a point above the bottom three.”
We can be confident West Ham won’t be winning. Their only win in their last 14 Premier League visits to White Hart Lane came in October 2013 (D5, L8).
Again, they may be unbeaten, but Spurs have gone seven matches without a win in all competitions (D5, L2). They have not fared worse since May 2004.
They could draw five consecutive league matches for the first time since a club record run of six in a row in 1999.
They have the best defensive record in the Premier League, conceding just six goals.
So we won’t be going Over 2.5 goals in this one.
West Ham have lost five of their last six away league games. But they have only lost once in five league matches.
After playing Spurs, West Ham travel to Manchester United and Liverpool either side of a home game against Arsenal. Not a pleasant run.
Tottenham are far too short at 1.53 given Harry Kane is not match fit. The draw looks attractive but I think the real value is in both teams to score.
Head to Head past eight, Spurs are 4-1-3 so it is hard to back a draw.
Five games went Over 2.5 goals and six had a first half goal and six had a second half goal. Four games went Over 3.5 goals and both scored in four.
Back Both Teams to Score for £25 @ 1.93